Conrad Black, Near-Term Predix

The air war in Libya is starting to crack Qaddafi’s forces. It broke Milosevic’s Serbs, and it will certainly do the same to the rag-bag of support for Qaddafi. Progress is almost continuous in Iraq, one of the stablest Arab countries in the region, and there is definite progress in Afghanistan, as there was bound to be with the injection of that level of force, despite the shenanigans of the Karzai government. The supposed entente between Turkey and Iran will quickly disintegrate; those countries have almost no points of agreement, starting with Iran’s nuclear program. And the Hamas-Fatah reconciliation will probably be a dead letter within a month. Rarely will there have been a more perfect example of a quarrel among thieves, though at least the West Bank leaders are numerate, especially in counting evidence of economic growth.

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